Sask. budget projects $819M deficit, no return to surplus until 2030

Saskatchewan expects to go deficits until the terminate of the decennium, according to the 2026-27 provincial budget tabled by Finance government minister Jim hans conrad julius reiter on Wednesday.

The estimates are headlined by a projected $819.4-million deficit in the upcoming fiscal year and a newly forecasted $1.21-billion deficit for last year.

The province says it is targeting a return to the black in 2030-2031, when it projects a $124.1-million surplus driven by "sustained economic growth," program adjustments and a reduction in the provincial workforce through attrition and not filling vacant positions.

"We are not going to be going and handing out pink slips. This is if somebody retires or is willingly leaving their position to go somewhere else," said Reiter. "This doesn't affect face to face with the public."

The government is targeting a three per cent reduction in executive government and across Crown corporations. It hopes to get rid of approximately 300 positions in each over two years. 

Titled "Protecting Saskatchewan," the budget echoes a refrain that Premier Scott Moe and Reiter have repeated in the weeks before the budget — no tax increases or service cuts.

The province is keeping the small business tax at one per cent, spending $17.5 billion on capital projects over the next four years and promising the largest expansion of nurse practitioners in provincial history through its Patients First Health Care Plan.

The budget appears to be Reiter's attempt to go a different path than other provinces. In recent weeks, Alberta, British Columbia and New Brunswick have tabled record-breaking or near record-breaking budget deficits. While Saskatchewan’s deficit projection is large, it's nowhere close to the record $2.4-billion deficit projected in the province's 2020-2021 budget.

World events put Sask. Finances in the red with an $819M deficit

Opposition NDP Leader Carla Beck blasted the Saskatchewan Party for failing to provide inflation relief and still delivering a deficit budget.

"There's nothing to offer a hint of hope or relief to those families that were already struggling," she told reporters.

She said that under Moe, Saskatchewan has accumulated three times the debt it did under former premier Brad Wall and twice as much as under former premier Grant Devine.

Beck suggested a temporary suspension of the provincial gas tax as the price of gasoline has skyrocketed in response to the war in the Middle East and the province has been reaping "windfall royalties."

Beck also criticized increases to fees for hunting and fishing licences and to power rates and automobile insurance deductibles.

The latest update to last year's fiscal budget, tabled alongside the new budget, paints a stark financial picture. 

The province is forecasting a $1.2-billion deficit by the end of the 2025-26 fiscal year. That's down from a forecasted surplus of $12 million in the 2025-26 budget and a $427.4-million deficit in the mid-year update.

The province's expenses grew by $970 million from budget projections, driven by the response to wildfires and "increased human services demands."

The province is projecting $21.4 billion in revenue in the coming fiscal year. That's a $361-million increase, or 1.7 per cent, from the 2025‑26 Budget.

Reiter said the bump is primarily driven by increases to the provincial sales tax and federal transfers.

The province is also projecting $22.2 billion in expenses, a $1.2-billion or 5.7 per cent increase, compared to last year's budget.

That's due to increasing program costs and population growth, Reiter said.

Finance minister explains why Sask. Is still in the red and will be for a while

As the province’s debt increases, so does the cost of financing it. Debt-related charges are climbing by $161 million, or 15.2 per cent, to $1.2 billion. That represents about 5.5 per cent of total expenses. 

Opposition finance critic Trent Wotherspoon slammed the Saskatchewan Party for last year's incorrect forecast of a $12-million surplus. He also pointed out that the government pledged to balance the budget by 2027 in the last election campaign, and that has now been bumped to 2031.

"You can't trust them with their budgets, you can't trust them with our public finances," Wotherspoon told reporters.

Jim Farney, a director and professor with the Johnson Shoyama School of Public Policy at the University of Regina, said the government's deficits and growing debt are becoming a concern.

"I mean this has become a habit for them," Farney said Wednesday. "I think what changed this year was it's not just deficits … It's that we're going to start significantly increasing our debt-servicing costs and our debt-to-GDP ratio."

Farney added that this year's budget, like last year's, is trying to make fiscal projections amid unpredictable turmoil from external forces.

Last year, tariffs from the United States created a volatile situation; this year, it's war in the Middle East that started when the U.S. And Israel attacked Iran.

Farney said the province could benefit from higher oil prices, but Saskatchewan farmers could face higher prices for fuel and fertilizer.

"It's very hard to predict three weeks into these things, the long-term effect," Farney said.

The volatility caused by the province's reliance on natural resource revenue is on display in this year’s budget.

Non-renewable resource revenues are projected at $2.6 billion, down $132 million from last year's budget. That represents 12 per cent of total revenue, below the 15 per cent the province deems as "prudent and sustainable for fiscal planning purposes."

The government is projecting decreased oil revenue, partially offset by higher potash revenue and stable uranium revenue.

The budget predicts the average price of West Texas Intermediate (WTI) oil over the year to be $59.75 US per barrel.

That's below the projection used by Alberta in its 2026-27 budget, which pegged WTI at $60.50 US.

Reiter says the difference in projections is not necessarily a surprise, as wild swings in oil prices due to conflict in the Middle East have made projections difficult.

Over the course of Tuesday, WTI fluctuated between $94 US and $98 US per barrel.

The budget says a $1 US change in the per-barrel price can affect the province's oil revenue projections by $16 million.

Meanwhile, a $0.01 US change in the Canadian and American exchange rate can affect non-renewable resource revenue by $44 million.

"These variables underscore the significant influence of external conditions on Saskatchewan’s nonrenewable resources revenue," the budget reads.

Sask. Premier on budgeting during market volatility

The province's spending on the Ministry of Justice is dropping by $2 million, to a total of $269 million. The province is focusing on a more accessible court system through the hiring and appointment of new positions.

The province says it will appoint four new Court of King's Bench associate judges. They will be responsible for specific civil and family matters to help reduce the judicial workload and resolve cases faster.

It will also appoint three new provincial court judges to help address rising caseloads and reduce reliance on temporary relief judges.

Six new justices of the peace will also be appointed to provide independent adjudication of major inmate discipline hearings in the province's correctional centres.

Finally, the province will appoint two new Crown prosecutors to specialize in complex provincial immigration and taxation cases.

The province is increasing its social services budget by $71.9 million, for a total of $1.69 billion. 

Saskatchewan Income Support (SIS) and Saskatchewan Assured Income for Disability (SAID) users will see a two per cent increase starting in May.

SAID residential support benefits for families that care for their loved ones at home will increase by 30 per cent over the next three years.

The provincial government is also providing a new one-time-per-household $1,000 utility arrears recoverable benefit to prevent evictions. With $400,000 earmarked for the fund, a maximum of 400 households can benefit from the program.

The province is also funding an additional 40 shelter spaces, split between Regina and Saskatoon.

The Ministry of Health is receiving $8.47 billion in this year's budget, an increase of $393.4 million over last year.

Much of the province's health spending is targeted at the recently announced Patients First Health Care Plan.

The Saskatchewan Health Authority will receive $5.15 billion to advance the province's patient first plans and improve access.

One of the new announcements included in the budget is $2.3 million to establish a Regina-based multiple sclerosis clinic. It's not clear when it will be operational, but the goal is to provide a comprehensive outpatient program in southern Saskatchewan.

The province is also spending $1.9 million to establish dedicated hospital public safety teams in Regina, Saskatoon and Prince Albert. The goal is to expand on-site security in response to rising violence and disruptive behaviour. 

NDP Leader Beck mocked the overall increase in health spending as a "piddly 0.3 per cent increase" over last year and said it will fail to stem the closures of emergency rooms throughout the province.

Opposition says Sask. Government is ‘incapable' of managing finances

The budget includes $673.7 million to address mental health and addictions, an increase of $49 million from last year.

The province says $10.8 million of the increase will help the province reach its goal — first announced in 2023 — to add 500 addiction treatment spaces by March 2027.

The province is spending $2.7 million to establish complex needs facilities in North Battleford and Prince Albert.

It will also establish a six-bed secure youth detox site at the Calder Centre in Saskatoon.

The province has also said the additional funding will help it "operationalize" the first phase of its involuntary treatment program, which was first introduced last fall. That will include the creation of “compassionate intervention treatment centres,” which will hold people under the Compassionate Intervention Act.

It's not clear how many spaces will be created this year or where they will be located.

The Ministry of Education is getting a two per cent increase, bringing its total to $3.6 billion.

Saskatchewan will create 50 new specialized support classrooms in schools across the province. That will bring the total number of these classrooms to 108 across all 27 school divisions.

The province has also announced planning for three new major capital projects: 

There is also $20 million in new money for the province's relocatable classroom program.

The provincial government has confirmed a new multi-year funding agreement with Saskatchewan's post-secondary institutions.

Operating funding is set to increase by $33.6 million in the upcoming fiscal year, part of the $250 million in funding over the next four years.

The government says all of the province's institutions have committed to limiting tuition increases to a range of zero to three per cent.

Saskatchewan is also expanding its training capacity for health care, with 20 new seats for doctors and 26 for new nurse practitioners to become available in the 2026-27 academic year.

Randy Goulden, the president of the Saskatchewan Urban Municipalities Association, said she was "pleased" with the increase of municipal revenue sharing to $392.4 million in the budget. But she said it's not enough.

"It has not gone up to cover all of the increased costs we're seeing in our municipalities," Goulden said.

Costs for essential infrastructure are rising for municipalities, which are prohibited from running deficits, she noted, adding that SUMA would have liked to see the province furnish municipalities with more options to raise revenue themselves.

Saskatoon Mayor Cynthia Block said she's waiting for the federal budget in the fall for a new program to help municipalities build infrastructure. She said she does not want to be "prescriptive," but granting municipalities a share of income tax makes sense.

Regina Mayor Chad Bachynski said he's found the province receptive to conversations about more revenue options for cities.

Reporter

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