What the upcoming assembly elections mean for the four poll-bound states

NEw new delhi As the Election charge of bharat (ECI) sets the chant for a hectic electoral treat starting April, Dhrubo Jyoti maps the stakes in the four states heading to polls.West Bengal It is one of India’s most politically important states but also one that has only been ruled by two parties for the past six decades. As West Bengal heads to the polls, history beckons Mamata Banerjee who is vying for a fourth term in what is the most-watched elections in this term. At 73, the Trinamool Congress chief has established a dense and locally rooted political organisation that she rules with an iron hand, a crucial lever in a state with high levels of political violence. She has created a network of welfare schemes that have bolstered her already-robust base among the poor and women – especially in the countryside. And she has strategically leveraged regional pride and Bengali culture to paint the BJP as outsiders and reiterate that no one has a deeper grassroots connection with the state than its “Didi”.For the Bharatiya Janata Party, the challenge is uphill but not unsurmountable. The party has tried to put its domestic affairs in order – the state unit is notorious for factionalism – and Union home minister Amit Shah’s direct intervention and Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s mammoth rally at Brigade Parade Ground this week will put wind in its sails. The party will hope to emulate the 2019 Lok Sabha results – its best yet – when it won 130-odd assembly segments (it won 18 Lok Sabha seats, compared to the TMC’s 22) and erase the deficits of 2021 and 2024 (when it won 77 assembly segments and 12 Lok Sabha seats, respectively). The party has established itself as the principal opposition party, far eclipsing the Congress and the Left. It has managed to push its pet issues — religious polarisation, infiltration, appeasement, infrastructure development — into the mainstream. But it continues to struggle to match the TMC’s organisational depth in Bengal’s vast rural hinterland and in south Bengal, the seat-rich TMC citadel. The party will hope to cash in on deep pockets of anti-incumbency, especially among young people and in urban areas in a state that struggles economically. A strong performance, and even a victory, will mean the moon in a state that birthed the founder of the Jana Sangh, Syama Prasad Mookerjee. Expect Banerjee’s appeal, allegations of corruption and the controversy around the special intensive revision to leave a mark.Tamil NaduFive years ago, when the Dravida Munnetra Kazhagam (DMK) stormed to power in Tamil Nadu after being shut out for a decade, it seemed that the party was set to dominate one of India’s most-prosperous states for an extended period. Its leader, chief minister MK Stalin, enjoyed a far greater stature than the handful of leaders vying to (unsuccessfully) fill the political vacuum left behind by then All India Anna Dravida Munnetra Kazhagam chief J Jayalalithaa, who died in 2016.But as the southern state heads to the polls this summer, the race appears closer than initially calculated. Pushed by Union home minister Amit Shah, the National Democratic Alliance (NDA) has managed to stitch together an alliance that at least looks formidable in arithmetic, even if its somewhat lacking in chemistry, Its chief ministerial face, E Palaniswami, has a reputation for being an able administrator, and the party continues to hold on to its base in the western part of the state and among the Gounders.The DMK-led alliance, which has swept the 2019 and 2024 Lok Sabha polls, is strong and buoyed especially by Stalin, who remains the state’s tallest leader. But many party lawmakers are deeply unpopular, allegations of corruption and poor administration are rife, and second-tier leadership virtually non-existent despite the party pushing Udhayanidhi Stalin. It has attempted to widen its coalition by bringing in a number of smaller, caste-based outfits into the fold and deepening its hold on swing communities such as Dalits. Expect stiffer fights in the southern parts of the state and for the support of groups such as Mukkulathors, which is increasingly fragmented.A third factor, actor-turned-politcian Vijay, threatens to complicate calculations in a state where politics has held little space beyond the two Dravidian majors. Vijay hopes to ride on his cult following among the young, especially men, but his party, the TVK, has neither a stated agenda nor grassroots network. As such, his fate might mirror that of Prashant Kishor, who was feted by the media before the Bihar polls, only to end up as inconsequential after. But in a close fight, all bets are off.KeralaIt is not everyday that both major forces going into elections in a major Indian state are fighting for their survival. Yet, this is exactly the pre-poll scenario in Kerala. It is the only state controlled by the Left, which has failed to expand anywhere else in the country or capture its previous fortresses of West Bengal or Tripura. Reshaped in the image of chief minister Pinarayi Vijayan, the cadre-based party will hope for a repeat of the 2021 upset, when it flipped the script in a state where power alternates between the LDF and the Congress-led United Democratic Front, and won. It’s not looking easy, though, for Vijayan to score a hattrick. The party is bogged down by allegations of corruption -- especially the scandal around the alleged theft of temple gold in Sabarimala and the Karuvannur Service Cooperative Bank case. There is no visible second-tier in the party that also suffered a drubbing in the recent local body polls.Ordinarily, this should mean smooth sailing for the UDF. But in characteristic fashion, the Congress has too many contenders for the chief minister’s position already – without having won anything. Principal among them is leader of the Opposition in the state VD Satheesan and senior leader Ramesh Chennithala. The party is riven by infighting and might have a task in closing seat pacts within the front. After being out of power for a decade, the front is also fighting with its back against the wall. Another defeat might mean that the Bharatiya Janata Party starts snapping at its heels for the main opposition spot.What about the BJP? The party has pulled out every stop to ensure that it can build on its Lok Sabha performance where it won its first parliamentary seat in the state, and more importantly, roughly a fifth of the vote. It will hope to better its 2016 tally of one, and hive away a chunk of the Christian and Nair votes. Much will depend on how the influential Ezhava vote moves.AssamFew major states in India have been shaped in the image of the chief minister like Assam has. Himanta Biswa Sarma attempts to don many hats – master strategist, protector of the indigenous Assamese, able administrator and polemical leader. More than anything else, the elections are going to be a referendum on the five-year-rule of the man who has delivered the Northeast to the BJP but has also alienated a substantial chunk of his own state with his controversial comments about undocumented migrants. In a border state with troubled history of infiltration and violent agitations that have resulted in massacres, cross-border migration remains an emotive and volatile issue and Sarma has attempted to paper over cracks in his coalition by upping the rhetoric against people he derisively calls “Miyas” – or Bengali-speaking Muslims. The party is hoping for a third consecutive victory, riding on infrastructure promises, a controversial eviction drive that has forced thousands of people into makeshift camps, and scheduled tribe status to six communities.On the other side stands Gaurav Gogoi, whose father Tarun Gogoi – also a former mentor to Sarma – was the last person to win three elections on the trot in Assam. The 43-year-old leader is relatively inexperienced and has been battling attempts by the chief minister to link him to Pakistan. He will take heart from the fact that anti-incumbency and corruption can work in favour of the Congress and the fact that there are signs of fatigue in upper Assam, from where Gaurav Gogoi won the Jorhat Lok Sabha seat two years ago despite the CM personally campaigning against him. The party is trying hard to avoid any polarisation in a state where communal and regional politics are often volatile. Also important will be the performance of the All India United Democratic Front, run by perfume baron Badruddin Ajmal, which once held a strong base in Lower Assam but has faded recently. Expect the controversial delimitation of seats in Assam – this is the first assembly election after the 2023 exercise – to also shape the polls.