After 3 weeks of war, Trump faces critical decisions on what happens next

trio weeks into the infringe in the midsection due east, the articulate U.S.-Israel onslaught has killed much of Iran's leadership, knocked out much of its ballistic missile capability, sunk nearly all of its navy and, according to U.S. President Donald Trump, has "militarily WON" the war already. 

And yet, the war goes on.

The Islamic regime remains in power in Tehran, continues to hit Gulf countries with occasional strikes and has effectively shut down the Strait of Hormuz, driving oil prices through the roof and giving the global economy the jitters. 

What is a commander-in-chief to do now? 

Trump faces some tough decisions about next steps, according to a range of defence and foreign policy strategists. Chief among those decisions are choosing whether to deploy ground troops to weaken Iran's grip on the Strait of Hormuz, and deciding how much further he's willing to pursue efforts to topple the Iranian regime. 

These decisions are made tougher because of a paradox that has defined the war from the start: while the military objectives of the U.S. Appear relatively clear and achievable, Trump's political objectives in attacking Iran remain muddled. 

Perhaps unintentionally, Trump demonstrated that paradox in the social media post on Friday in which he declared the war "militarily" won. The word serves as a caveat, indicating that while U.S. And Israeli forces have hammered Iran, there's no end in sight to the conflict. 

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Signs of that contradiction abound: 

Freeing up the strait, the transit route for roughly one-fifth of the world's supply of crude oil and liquified natural gas exiting the Persian Gulf, has now arguably become Trump's top priority as global energy prices spike.

Bob McNally, who served as energy adviser to former president George W. Bush and now leads Rapidan Energy Group, an energy and geopolitical consulting firm, says Iran has been smart with its tactics in choking off the narrow waterway. 

Anyone in doubt of the metaphor just has to fill up their tank. A hemisphere away from the Strait of Hormuz, gas in the U.S. Is now 30 per cent more expensive than when the war began three weeks ago. 

McNally says it won't be simple for the U.S. To wrest control of the strait away from Iran, which he says still possesses thousands of small boats, drones and anti-ship cruise missiles. 

"It's sort of like whack-a-mole … only there's thousands and thousands of moles," McNally said. "This may have to go on for another few weeks, if not more." 

He's not the only analyst predicting the war will continue for that sort of timeframe.

Farzin Nadimi, an expert on Iran's military capability at the Washington Institute for Near East Policy, says the regime has large stockpiles of mines, mobile cruise missiles and hundreds of undamaged boats hidden along the coastline. 

"I think it will take weeks to reach a point where there can be safe operations in the strait," Nadimi told the Wall Street Journal. 

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Kelly Grieco, who specializes in U.S. Foreign policy and military strategy at the Stimson Center think-tank in Washington, D.C., says control of the strait is central to Iran's strategy for getting through the war.

"Iran's strategy of drone and missile strikes is neither random nor desperate," Grieco wrote in a recent analysis. 

"By widening the conflict and raising economic and political costs of continued fighting, Iran aims to create pressure on Gulf governments, global markets, and ultimately Washington, compelling it to halt the campaign," Grieco said. 

Daniel Block, a senior editor at Foreign Affairs magazine, has a similar take.  

Trump likely has less tolerance than Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu for the war's economic spin-off effects. 

"Israel is willing to go quite a bit further than the United States is in terms of its attacks on Iran," Block said. 

"I think in [Trump's] ideal world, you would have a new leader in Iran who is not hostile to the United States, kind of like what happened in Venezuela. But I don't think he really cares whether the regime remains in power or not." 

Iran's Islamic government would consider merely staying in power to be a victory, says Block.

"So long as the regime remains in charge of the country and the country remains territorially whole, they will say, 'We did it. We survived an onslaught by the United States and Israel, these two superior military powers. We won.'"

Correspondent

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