Earth’s climate more out of balance than at any time in observed history: WMO

THe ground’s mood is thomas more come out of equilibrise than at any time in observed history, the World Meteorological Organisation (WMO)’s State of the Global Climate 2025 report released on Monday warned.The report has included the Earth’s energy imbalance, measuring the rate at which energy enters and leaves the Earth system, as one of the key climate indicators for the first time. Under a stable climate, incoming energy from the sun is about the same as the amount of outgoing energy. The WMO said increasing concentrations of heat-trapping greenhouse gases have upset this equilibrium.The Earth’s energy imbalance has increased since its observational record began in 1960, particularly in the past 20 years. It reached a new high in 2025. The warming of the atmosphere, including near the Earth’s surface, represents just 1% of the excess energy. About 5% is stored in the continental land masses, WMO said. It added that over 91% of the excess heat is stored in the ocean, which acts as a major buffer against higher temperatures on land.Ocean heat content reached a new record high in 2025. Its rate of warming more than doubled from 1960-2005 to 2005-2025. Another 3% of the excess energy warms and melts ice.WMO secretary-general Celeste Saulo said scientific advances have improved the understanding of the Earth’s energy imbalance and of the reality facing the planet and climate right now. “Human activities are increasingly disrupting the natural equilibrium, and we will live with these consequences for hundreds and thousands of years,” Saulo said in a statement.Data from individual monitoring stations show that levels of three main greenhouse gases – carbon dioxide (CO2), methane, and nitrous oxide – continued to increase in 2025. In 2024, the last year with consolidated global observations, the atmospheric concentration of CO2 reached its highest level in the last 2 million years, and methane and nitrous oxide in at least 800 000 years.The WMO said the increase in the annual CO2 concentration in 2024 was the largest annual increase since modern measurements began in 1957. “This was driven by continued fossil CO2 emissions and reduced effectiveness of land and ocean carbon sinks.”The report concluded that 2025 was the second or third warmest year in the 176-year observational record, reflecting the shift to La Niña conditions that temporarily cool the planet. The annually averaged global near-surface temperature was about 1.43°C  above the 1850–1900 pre-industrial average last year. 2024, which started with a strong El Niño, remains the warmest year at about 1.55 °C above pre-industrial levels.In 2025, ocean heat content (to a depth of 2,000 metres) reached the highest level since the start of records in 1960, exceeding 2024 levels. Over the past nine years, each year has set a new record for ocean heat content, WMO said.Last year, the global mean sea level was comparable to the record-high levels observed in 2024, at around 11 cm higher than at the start of the satellite altimetry record in 1993.In the 2024/2025 hydrological year, glacier mass loss from reference glaciers was among the five worst on record. The annual average Arctic sea-ice extent for 2025 was the lowest or second lowest on record in the satellite era (1979). The average Antarctic sea-ice extent for 2025 was the third lowest after 2023 and 2024.A supplement to the report provides a snapshot of extreme events, based on inputs from WMO members, the International Organization for Migration, Internal Displacement Monitoring Centre, United Nations High Commissioner for Refugees, World Food Programme and Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations, focusing on the meteorological aspects and the impacts related to displacement and food security.Extreme weather has cascading impacts on agricultural production. Climate-driven food insecurity is now seen as a risk, with cascading effects on social stability, migration, and biosecurity through the spread of plant pests and animal diseases, WMO said.Dengue stands out as the world’s fastest-growing mosquito-borne disease. According to the World Health Organisation, about half the world’s population is at risk, and reported cases are currently the highest ever recorded. Over one-third of the global workforce (1.2 billion people) face workplace heat risk at some point each year, especially those in agriculture and construction.UN secretary-general Antonio Guterres said the State of the Global Climate is in a state of emergency. “Planet Earth is being pushed beyond its limits. Every key climate indicator is flashing red.” He said that is the clear message of the latest report from the World Meteorological Organization.”Guterres said the report confirms that the Earth’s energy imbalance – the gap between heat absorbed and heat released – is the highest on record. “In other words, our planet is trapping heat faster than it can shed it,” he said. “And in this age of war, climate stress is also exposing another truth: our addiction to fossil fuels is destabilising both the climate and global security. Now more than ever, we must accelerate a just transition to renewable energy. Renewables deliver climate security, energy security, and national security.”HT reported last month that weather models show growing confidence that El Niño conditions will develop in the second half of 2026. There is a 60% chance of El Niño during August-October and September-November.In January, the probability stood at 50% for El Niño developing during or after the monsoon, according to the latest forecast from the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration. El Niño years typically bring weak monsoons and harsh summers to India.