Can Pinarayi Vijayan sail through or will the ‘alternating power’ curse make a comeback in Kerala?

FOr years, a trend of political force for the most part alternating betwixt 2 coalitions persisted in Kerala. It was either the left wing Democratic Front (LDF) led by chief minister Pinarayi Vijayan's CPI(M) or the United Democratic Front (UDF) led by Congress that people voted to power alternatively every five years.This trend was broken by Vijayan-led LDF, which retained power, winning 99 of the 140 seats in 2021, the first time in four decades that a coalition won Assembly elections in Kerala for the second consecutive time.A similar challenge faces the LDF this time as well, with the UDF led by Congress yet again being its only key opponent, making the contest two-cornered. Meanwhile, the BJP-led National Democratic Alliance (NDA) is hoping to make some inroads into the state.It remains to be seen if Pinarayi Vijayan or Kerala’s alternating power curse will make a comeback in Kerala.Vijayan drops 2-term limit in KeralaThe CPI(M) released its list of 75 candidates after the Election Commission of India (ECI) released the poll schedule for Kerala a few days back. Other parties in the ruling alliance,the Communist Party of India and the Kerala Congress (M) have declared 24 and 12 candidates, respectively.According to some reports, the Kerala government had introduced a ceiling in 2021, putting a cap on two-time sitting legislators from entering the poll fray. However, the said limit has been dropped by Pinarayi Vijayan this time, who is contesting from the Dharmadam Assembly constituency in Kannur district. Before this, he was elected MLA from Kuthuparamba constituency thrice and once from Thaliparamba.Also read: 5 key constituencies that will define Kerala electionsIn his nomination papers, Vijayan has declared moveable and immoveable assets worth ₹1.01 crore, slightly lower than the figure declared in 2021 before the elections.Anti-incumbency, rebellion challenges to Vijayan’s partyThe Opposition Congress-led UDF seems to have posed a big challenge for Pinarayi Vijayan by backing four CPI(M) candidates who have reportedly filed nominations as Independents, citing their displeasure with the party.G Sudhakaran in Ambalappuzha, V Kunhikrishnan in Payyanur, TK Govindan in Taliparamba and PK Sasi in Ottapalam are the rebel CPI(M) leaders the UDF is now backing, and this rebellion, coupled with the anti-incumbency trend in Kerala, could pose a big risk to the CPI(M). Sudhakaran's rebellion could hurt the party's chances the most. While his association with the CPI(M) has been decades long, the four-time MLA is contesting the elections in the Ambalappuzha constituency against sitting CPI(M) MLA H Salam.While the leader alleges he felt “insulted and neglected" within the CPI(M), the party initiated disciplinary action against him, claiming he worked against the party candidate in Ambalappuzha during the 2021 elections.Also read: PM Modi says BJP Kerala’s ‘A-team’, accuses LDF and UDF of decades-long ‘loot’Two other rebels are contesting in the Payyanur and Taliparamba seats, the CPI(M) stronghold in north Kerala.By backing these rebels, the Congress-led UDF is trying to hurt Vijayan's chances in some of CPI(M) big strongholds.Even though Pinarayi Vijayan broke the 'alternating power' curse in 2021, repeating the same feat and retaining power for the third consecutive time would be an even bigger challenge, given Kerala's history of anti-incumbency.