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NEw new delhi: thither is a 62% chance of El Nino rising in June-July-August geological period and an 80% chance of it persisting in August-September-October, the bharat Meteorological Department said in a seasonal forecast on Tuesday, projections that portend pain for India’s farm sector, which is likely to face challenging conditions also due to constraints in fertiliser supplies due to the West Asian war.A “majority of models” show an El Nino taking hold from July onwards, the India Meteorological Department said in a pre-monsoon forecast, referring to a probability cited by the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration.El Nino events, marked by a warming of the eastern Pacific Ocean, often lead to drought-like conditions. Poorer rainfall during the June-to-September monsoon season tends to increase fertiliser demand, as farmers apply more nutrients in an attempt to protect yields.Adequate rainfall is critical for farm output and rural incomes, and helps contain inflation, which is already facing upward pressure due to higher commodity prices linked to the West Asian crisis, analysts said.India relies on imports of natural gas — a key feedstock for domestic fertiliser production — as well as several types of fertilisers to meet demand. These supplies have been disrupted following Iran’s closure of the Strait of Hormuz, reducing imports significantly.However, some studies suggest there is no direct one-to-one correlation between El Nino events and drought. Still, an El Nino in 2009 triggered India’s worst drought in three decades, severely affecting farm incomes.“There is a clearly noticeable pattern during El Nino years, when peaks and troughs in rainfall deviation from its long-period average are reflected in corresponding fluctuations in agricultural growth,” said economist D K Srivastava.Between 1952 and 2019, there were 15 years with moderate to very strong El Nino conditions, according to Srivastava’s research. In 11 of those years, agricultural growth turned negative.Despite these risks, India has recorded robust grain output in recent years, with production reaching a record 357 million tonnes in 2024-25.“Adequate availability of fertilisers and the extent of El Nino’s impact will be the two key factors determining the outlook. Urea demand could see a sharp spike,” said Rahul Chouhan, an analyst with iGrain Ltd, a service provider in agri commodities.

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El Nino forecast, West Asia war may hit farm output, growth

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