This election cycle is most important for Muslim representation in assemblies

FOur states and unity unification soil testament go to polls in the electric current election cycle. West Bengal (294 constituencies), Tamil Nadu (234), Kerala (140), Assam (126) and Puducherry (30) will elect a total of 824 MLAs in this election cycle. This makes it the largest in terms of total MLAs being elected in all assembly election cycles – there are 11 of them – in the country which has a total of 4,123 MLAs. However, the current election cycle is even more important for another reason. It is the most critical election from the perspective of Muslim representation. An HT analysis of all MLAs elected in the latest assembly election shows that these four states and Puducherry accounted for 41.6% of all Muslims MLAs in the country. To be sure, three of the states going to polls in the current election cycle have a relatively high share of Muslims in the population.India’s 31 legislative assemblies elect 4,123 MLAs. An HT analysis of MLAs elected in the latest assembly election shows that 279 of them were Muslims. This means that share of Muslim MLAs in the country is 6.8%. It is significantly smaller than their overall population share of 14.2%, according to the 2011 census.There are significant state-wise inequalities in share of Muslims in total population and their share in MLAs. The latter, in fact, is more unequal than the former. Just four states (West Bengal, Assam, Kerala, Uttar Pradesh) and one Union territory (Jammu and Kashmir) elected 71% of the total Muslim MLAs in the latest election cycle, much larger than their 53% share in total Muslim population in the country. To be sure, every state and Union territory had a lower share of Muslim MLAs in its legislative assembly than their respective population share in the state. (See Chart 1)The top three states by number of Muslim MLAs excluding Uttar Pradesh – West Bengal, Kerala and Assam – in the country are going to polls in the current election cycle, which makes it the most crucial for Muslim representation in the country. (See Chart 2)Why does share in Muslim population not follow a more linear relationship with Muslim MLAs among Indian states and UTs? The answer is to be found in the intra-state distribution of Muslims in a state’s population.We do not have a religious breakdown of demography at the level of assembly constituencies in India. What we do have is religion-wise population shares at the district level. An HT mapping of the 279 ACs which elected a Muslim MLA in their latest election shows that 44% of them came from districts which had a Muslim population share of over 50%, with 35% of them coming from districts with a Muslim population share of over 65%. In fact, the probability of having a Muslim MLA rises significantly as the population share of Muslims rises in a district. (See Chart 3)This is exactly where West Bengal, Assam and Kerala score much better than most Indian states. An HT mapping of ACs with districts shows that of the 492 ACs in districts where Muslims accounted for at least 25% of the population, 58% were in these three states. This is much larger than their 14% share in total number of MLAs in the country. As is obvious, this plays a crucial role in the higher share of Muslim MLAs in these states. For example, Uttar Pradesh saw a large fall in the number of Muslims MLAs from 68 in 2012 to just 23 and 34 in 2017 and 2022, largely a reflection of the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) increasing its seat share in the assembly at the cost of the Samajwadi Party and the Bahujan Samaj Party.(Abhishek Jha contributed to the data work for this story)