U.S. says it's reviewing proposal to extend deadline for Iran to reopen Strait of Hormuz

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Donald Trump is prone to apocalyptic language, but has never used it to this degree in the war with Iran. He has threatened "a whole civilization will die tonight" unless Iran capitulates.

The U.S. President has a track record, in both politics and business, for ratcheting up the pressure immediately before a deadline to make a deal. He seeks the immediate reopening of the Strait of Hormuz. Iran is resistant because it is their greatest leverage.

Here are four scenarios on what might happen next:

1) Trump announces a deal

The two sides are in talks, albeit indirectly. Trump may announce they have struck a deal or are close enough to one. The details will matter here. 

In January he set a deadline to acquire Greenland, then announced a "framework of a future deal," even though one has never appeared. That won't be possible with Iran. Either ships will be moving through the strait, or they will still face risk.

Trump is under pressure from Congress and some in his own administration to find any off-ramp and accept nearly any deal. But there is a countervailing force, led by Israel's Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, to continue attacks to achieve a more punishing agreement from Iran.

2) No deal, attacks continue 

If there is no deal, the war may continue much as it has been. Trump may continue to escalate the rhetoric, but the rate and nature of military targeting stays the same. 

3) Striking Iran's oil infrastructure

Earlier in the conflict, the U.S. Asked Israel to limit its attacks on Iran's oil infrastructure. Long-term damage to Iran's ability to produce, export and ship oil would leave the gas price at significantly elevated levels for years. That has not yet happened. But destruction of Kharg Island, where Iran exports 90 per cent of its oil, would destroy the country's economy and leave oil globally in a difficult position. That makes this a less likely option.

4) Massive increase in attacks

Before threatening to kill the entire civilization (which would only be possible with the very, very unlikely use of a nuclear weapon), Trump said he would target Iran's power plants and bridges. 

This would involve a combination of precision strikes using fighter aircraft and guided missiles, and attacks from B-52 aircraft which can carry thousands of pounds of explosive ordnance. 

It would be an effort to violently push the regime into capitulation. While the top echelon of the regime has been killed, it still leads the country — with no signs yet that it is about to crack.

White House spokesperson Karoline Leavitt told Axios the administration has received Pakistan's proposal for a two-week extension.

"The President has been [made aware] of the proposal, and a response will come," she said, according to the outlet.

Pakistan Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif said Trump should extend his deadline for Iran by two weeks. In return, Iran should re-open the Strait of Hormuz for that two-week period, Sharif said.

"Diplomatic efforts for peaceful settlement of the ongoing war in the Middle East are progressing steadily, strongly and powerfully with the potential to lead to substantive results in near future. To allow diplomacy to run its course, I earnestly request President Trump to extend the deadline for two weeks," he wrote on X. 

"Pakistan, in all sincerity, requests the Iranian brothers to open [the] Strait of Hormuz for a corresponding period of two weeks as a goodwill gesture."

Neyshabouri, an associate professor in Arabic language and Muslim cultures, has already experienced loss in this war. Last week, Tehran's Shahid Beheshti University, her alma mater, was bombed. 

"It was a dagger through my heart," she said. "It's a beautiful campus. It's where I came into who I am."

She says her professors there risked their lives to teach her about literature and queer theory in the face of Iran's strict censorship laws. 

Now, as she awaits Trump's deadline, she is trying to channel those professors.

"I still do have some power, and … that is teaching," she said. "Teaching empathy through literature in my classrooms and through writing in a world that seems to be so indifferent to the suffering of people from my region. It started with Gaza and now it's in Iran."

Safaneh Mohaghegh Neyshabouri has been lying to her friends in Tehran.

"I actually really think that something very terrible is coming, but I told them that, 'Oh, don't say that. I'm still hopeful that there are wise people in the American administration that will stop this from happening.'"

In reality, she says, she fears the worst. After all, she says Trump is a man who surrounds himself with "sycophants" and fires people who speak out against him.

"He thought there would be an absolute surrender, a very short fight, and he'll get what he wants. And that hasn't happened," she said. 

"He's a narcissist, and I really fear that he will take the worst action because of his hurt pride."

In an online post this afternoon, Iran's foreign affairs spokesperson said the logic in a "civilized" nation "will undoubtedly prevail" over "brute force."

"A nation that has every faith in the righteousness of its path shall harness all its capacities and capabilities to safeguard its rights and legitimate interests," Esmaeil Baqaei wrote on X with the hashtag #IranWillWin.

The leadership of the Democratic Party in the U.S. House of Representatives wants Congress to put a stop to the war in Iran and the president's threats. 

"Donald Trump is completely unhinged," House Minority Leader Hakeem Jeffries and five other Democrats said in a statement. 

Trump's threat to wipe out an entire civilization "shocks the conscience and requires a decisive congressional response," the statement said.  

"The House must come back into session immediately and vote to end this reckless war of choice in the Middle East before Donald Trump plunges our country into World War III." 

The ability of Congress to stop the conflict in its tracks is limited. While it has the power to declare war under the U.S. Constitution, it hasn't done so since the Second World War, despite U.S. Wars since in Korea, Vietnam, Iraq and Afghanistan. 

Congress does have the authority over military spending, so it could block the Pentagon's pending request for an additional $200 billion US for the war against Iran. 

Reuters

China and Russia vetoed a UN resolution encouraging states to co-ordinate efforts to protect commercial shipping in the Strait of Hormuz, calling the measure biased against Iran.

Washington's ambassador to the UN, meanwhile, called on "responsible nations" to join the U.S. In securing the waterway.

The 15-member Security Council voted 11 in favour of the resolution presented by Bahrain, with two against — China and Russia — and two abstentions.

The U.S. Ambassador to the United Nations, Mike Waltz, condemned the Russian and Chinese vetoes, saying they marked "a new low" when Iran's shutting of the strait was preventing medical aid and supplies reaching humanitarian crises in Congo, Sudan and Gaza.

"No one should tolerate that. They are holding the global economy at gunpoint. But today, Russia and China did tolerate it. They sided with a regime that seeks to intimidate the Gulf into submission, even as it brutalizes its own people."

Jerome Bonnafont, France's ambassador to the UN, deplored the vetoes.

"The aim was to encourage strictly, purely defensive measures to provide the security and safety for the Strait without spiraling towards escalation," he said.

Trump’s threats won’t frighten Iranian regime, but regular Iranians may rally around flag: expert

Kian Tajbakhsh is a professor of international relations at New York University and was a political prisoner in Iran. Tajbakhsh says the Iranian regime would rather see infrastructure flattened than step aside, and so U.S. President Donald Trump's threats don't affect it. Tajbakhsh says the threats may, however, have an effect on civilians.

Kian Tajbakhsh, an international relations professor at New York University and former political prisoner in Iran, criticized the U.S. President's recent threats to destroy Iranian infrastructure as "undisciplined" and "beyond the pale."

Tajbakhsh said Trump's post and previous comments that have alluded to regime change already occurring are "patently untrue."

Threatening to bomb the country's infrastructure "back to the stone ages" will not deter the regime, Tajbakhsh said, adding that the current leaders only care about their own survival, and are supported by about 15 to 20 per cent of the population.

He said those leaders have already indicated they would "leave a scorched Iran" before giving up power.

Instead of weakening the government, Tajbakhsh said U.S. Threats against Iranian infrastructure are causing Iranians who typically dislike the regime to "rally around the flag" against the American position.

The president's rhetoric is "unnecessarily insulting," Tajbakhsh said, noting the international community likely still supports the U.S. Behind the scenes in its broader geopolitical goal: preventing Iran from holding 20 per cent of the "world's hydrocarbons as hostage" by controlling the Strait of Hormuz.

At Carney's Brampton, Ont., news conference earlier, the prime minister was also asked in French to comment on remarks by French President Emmanuel Macron. 

"There's too much speaking; it's going in all directions," Macron said last week, referring to Trump.

"We need stability, calm and a return to peace; this isn't a spectacle."

Carney was diplomatic in his response, saying in French, "It's important to choose words carefully and to be very prudent in terms of one's actions."

But he conceded: "I share President Macron's message. It's a serious situation. It's the lives of women, men, the lives of civilians."

Foreign Affairs Minister Anita Anand spoke to the Vancouver Board of Trade today and was asked about Canada's position on Iran and Trump's comments on Truth Social. 

"Civilian infrastructure is indeed what keeps civilians themselves safe. Neither should be the object of military decisions — period," Anand said.

"That is our position internationally and it applies to all states."

The minister said Canada is focused on de-escalation as tensions rise ahead of the U.S. Deadline.

"We are working with the Gulf countries to support them against retaliatory strikes from Iran, to support them and the global economy in ensuring advocacy for the opening of the Strait of Hormuz," Anand said. She added that she met with Prince Faisal bin Farhan Al Saud, Minister of Foreign Affairs of the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia, in Riyadh last week. 

Anand said Canada is working with allies to stabilize energy markets and reduce reliance on single trading partners.

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