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Donald Trump is prone to apocalyptic language, but has never used it to this degree in the war with Iran. He has threatened "a whole civilization will die tonight" unless Iran capitulates.

The U.S. President has a track record, in both politics and business, for ratcheting up the pressure immediately before a deadline to make a deal. He seeks the immediate reopening of the Strait of Hormuz. Iran is resistant because it is their greatest leverage.

Here are four scenarios on what might happen next:

1) Trump announces a deal

The two sides are in talks, albeit indirectly. Trump may announce they have struck a deal or are close enough to one. The details will matter here. 

In January he set a deadline to acquire Greenland, then announced a "framework of a future deal," even though one has never appeared. That won't be possible with Iran. Either ships will be moving through the strait, or they will still face risk.

Trump is under pressure from Congress and some in his own administration to find any off-ramp and accept nearly any deal. But there is a countervailing force, led by Israel's Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, to continue attacks to achieve a more punishing agreement from Iran.

2) No deal, attacks continue 

If there is no deal, the war may continue much as it has been. Trump may continue to escalate the rhetoric, but the rate and nature of military targeting stays the same. 

3) Striking Iran's oil infrastructure

Earlier in the conflict, the U.S. Asked Israel to limit its attacks on Iran's oil infrastructure. Long-term damage to Iran's ability to produce, export and ship oil would leave the gas price at significantly elevated levels for years. That has not yet happened. But destruction of Kharg Island, where Iran exports 90 per cent of its oil, would destroy the country's economy and leave oil globally in a difficult position. That makes this a less likely option.

4) Massive increase in attacks

Before threatening to kill the entire civilization (which would only be possible with the very, very unlikely use of a nuclear weapon), Trump said he would target Iran's power plants and bridges. 

This would involve a combination of precision strikes using fighter aircraft and guided missiles, and attacks from B-52 aircraft which can carry thousands of pounds of explosive ordnance. 

It would be an effort to violently push the regime into capitulation. While the top echelon of the regime has been killed, it still leads the country — with no signs yet that it is about to crack.

Trump's post goes on to say that his reason for agreeing to the pause is because the U.S. Has "already met and exceeded" all of its military objectives and is "very far along" with an agreement for long-term peace with Iran. 

He said the U.S. "received a 10-point proposal from Iran, and believe it is a workable basis on which to negotiate." 

In a social media post, Trump announced he's holding off on his threat to bomb Iranian power plants and bridges and accepting the terms of an extension proposed by Pakistan: a two-week extension on his deadline in exchange for the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz during that period.

"Subject to the Islamic Republic of Iran agreeing to the COMPLETE, IMMEDIATE, and SAFE OPENING of the Strait of Hormuz, I agree to suspend the bombing and attack of Iran for a period of two weeks," the president posted at 6:32 p.m. ET, just 90 minutes before his deadline today was set to expire.

Iran’s ambassador to Pakistan, Reza Amiri Moghadam, has issued a statement on social media saying discussions to pause the conflict have taken a “step forward” after being in a “sensitive stage.” 

Pakistan asked Trump a few hours ago to consider giving Iran a two-week deadline extension, while requesting that Iran open the Strait of Hormuz during that period.

A Republican congressman who has been a solid Trump supporter is taking issue with the president's threat to wipe out Iran.

Nathaniel Moran is a representative from Texas who cites Bible verses in his congressional biography and describes himself as a Reagan Republican. 

"To date, I have supported the President’s decisions relating to the Iranian conflict," Moran said in a post on X. 

"I do not support the destruction of a 'whole civilization.' That is not who we are, and it is not consistent with the principles that have long guided America." 

Few Republicans have been willing to oppose Trump publicly on any policies since his return to the White House in 2025.  

Iran has a mix of power plants to serve its population of more than 92 million, though it relies mostly on natural gas plants scattered across the country.

The biggest is the Damavand power station just outside Tehran, which has an output well above 2,000 MW and serves a wide swath of the surrounding region.

The Bushehr plant — the country's only nuclear power station — is also of note. Located on the country's west coast, it has already been hit by a projectile, Iran told the International Atomic Energy Agency. One person was killed but there was no increase in radiation levels, the agency said, adding it was the "fourth such incident in recent weeks."

Lloyd Axworthy, who was Canada's foreign affairs minister under former prime minister Jean Chrétien, agreed the careful responses from Carney and other European leaders did not meet the moment. 

Statements alone are no longer enough, he said, even if they carry a stronger message.

"I think what Canada and others should start talking about is, how do we hold Donald Trump and Israel and Iran, who are all committing war crimes, accountable? It's not just a matter of response, it's a matter of taking initiative and action that will do something about it and make it very clear to Trump and his people that they can't get away with it."

The "muted" response from other world leaders is not meeting the gravity of Trump's threat, says Nader Hashemi, an associate professor of Middle East and Islamic politics at Georgetown University in Washington, D.C.

"When you threaten to destroy an entire civilization ... Unless they submit to his dictats, that strikes me as one of the most grotesque statements we've ever heard — not just from Donald Trump, but really from any political leader in modern times.

"Every world leader at this moment, including Prime Minister Mark Carney in Canada, who doesn't very clearly speak out and condemn this type of language ... It will only embolden this type of behaviour."

Among the many people hoping Trump extends tonight's deadline are members of the U.S. Military who could be placed in the position of either committing a war crime or being court-martialled for disobeying the commander-in-chief.

That's according to Jonathan Hackett, a retired U.S. Marine Corps specialist operations capabilities specialist.

Military personnel are not supposed to follow unlawful orders, Hackett explained. But if they refuse an order, they'll be seen as violating the Uniform Code of Military Justice until a court-martial process — which can take years — proves otherwise.

"[American military personnel] are actually going to be putting their entire career, their whole life, their families, on the line to stand up and say, 'I'm not going to do that flight or I'm not going to load that bomb,'" Hackett said. 

"On an individual level, they may choose to comply because of the concern over their own individual future, even if they don't want to and they feel as though it's unlawful."

The two-week ceasefire proposed by Pakistan could give Trump the opportunity to back away from his maximalist threats against Iran, just hours before his deadline. 

With Pakistan's Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif saying diplomatic efforts to find a solution to halt the war "are progressing steadily, strongly and powerfully," Trump could claim there's now reason not to launch strikes against Iran's power plants and bridges as he'd threatened. 

That's exactly what Trump did on March 23, just hours before a previous deadline for Iran to open the Strait of Hormuz was due to expire. 

If Trump agrees to Pakistan's proposal, it would be the fourth time he has extended his deadline for Tehran to comply with U.S. Demands. 

Reuters

Pope Leo XIV says Trump's threats against the population of Iran are "unacceptable," in a rare response from a pontiff to a world leader. 

"Today, as we all know, there was this threat against ​the entire people of Iran, and this is truly ​unacceptable," said the pope while speaking to journalists outside his residence in Castel Gandolfo, Italy, on Tuesday.

"There are certainly issues here of ​international law, but even more than that, it is a ⁠moral question for ⁠the good of the [world's] people."

Leo, the spiritual leader of 1.4 billion Catholics around the world, is known for choosing his words carefully, but has been ⁠ramping up his criticism of the U.S-Israeli war against Iran in recent weeks.

He called on citizens across the world to contact their political representatives and ask them to bring the conflict to an end.

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