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Iranian-Canadian feels 'sadness' that regime is still standing | Hanomansing Tonight

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Defence expert says he'd be surprised if U.S.-Iran ceasefire lasts 4 days

David Des Roches, a defence analyst and former liaison to the U.S. Department of Homeland Security, says that while the U.S. And Iran have agreed on paper to a two-week ceasefire, the two are so far apart on conditions needed to end the war that it's unlikely to last even a few days.

Defence analyst David Des Roches, who previously worked in the U.S. Office of the Secretary of Defense, says the lack of movement in the Strait of Hormuz signals the ceasefire may be short-lived.

He said Iran appears to be framing the agreement as a "surrender" by the U.S., but suggested the two sides remain far apart, with Washington expecting shipping to resume immediately or risk escalation.

"I don't expect it to last because the positions are too far apart," Des Roches said. "I'd be surprised if it lasts four days."

Des Roches believes Iran's demands — including lifting all sanctions and limiting actions against its regional allies — are "unattainable."

He said Trump likely agreed to talks to show a willingness to negotiate to a skeptical domestic audience, while also giving U.S. And Israeli forces time to "rest and recover."

"I don’t think this war is over," Des Roches said, predicting the ceasefire could collapse quickly, with each side accusing the other of failing to meet conditions.

Even before the ceasefire announcement, Iran was charging certain vessels a wartime $2 million US fee to pass through the Strait of Hormuz, according to The Wall Street Journal.

Those ships would sail through Iranian territorial waters closer to its coast, rather than the usual portion of the strait that has long been considered international waters.

It's now proposing to make that toll a permanent feature, asserting that it has sovereignty over the entire waterway critical to moving the Gulf's oil by ship.

Trump has previously suggested that the U.S. Could actually charge a toll alongside Iran — or instead of them. (Iran has not publicly responded to that idea.)

If Iran were to carry through, it would be a huge moneymaker.

With an average of 130 ships passing through the strait each day before the war, the proposed toll would earn Iran as much as $12 billion annually. 

It's already earning a lot more from its oil, which it has continued to export during the war; Iran has been making $200 million a day at elevated prices.

Even with the ceasefire bringing those prices down, Iran is still earning considerably more oil revenue than before the war. That, says Ryan Cummings from the Stanford Institute of Economic Research, would "allow them to rebuild and do a bunch of things through the region."

Gulf nations may seek to stop Iran from charging a toll. So too might the Americans, but Cummings points out "it was widely believed the U.S. Navy's Fifth Fleet controlled the strait. This war proved it didn't."

Winnipeg Iranian worries proposed ceasefire could limit possible regime change

Ramtin Teymouri says a proposed pause in the conflict with the U.S. And Israel won't help Iran in the long term because he said his home country is still ruled by the same oppressive government. As of April 6, Tehran is rejecting the proposed ceasefire.

"Unless there is a transition to democracy, there is really no good outcome out of this," Teymouri said. 

"Either the infrastructure will be destroyed if the regime is in power … or if there is a ceasefire the political structure remains intact and they will continue the execution spree." 

Teymouri still has uncles, aunts and distant relatives living in Iran. He is worried for their safety.

But at the same time, Teymouri said his family has relayed to him that after decades of state oppression, they were willing to wait if this conflict could trigger a change in government. 

"War is scary, but the regime is scarier," Teymouri said.

Iranian-Canadian feels 'sadness' that regime is still standing | Hanomansing Tonight

While a temporary ceasefire between the U.S. And Iran has been reached, Iranian-Canadian lawyer Kaveh Shahrooz says he felt hopeful at the start of the war, but says the regime is 'more resilient' than he thought.

Iranian Canadians are expressing relief that Trump did not follow through on his threats that 'a whole civilization will die," but are also concerned about the lack of change in Iranian leadership. 

Kaveh Shahrooz, a human rights lawyer and former Global Affairs Canada adviser based in Toronto, said many Iranians had hoped the conflict would lead to regime change, but that optimism has faded as the government has proven "more resilient" than expected.

"The initial enthusiasm has given way to something a little bit darker," Shahrooz said, warning the regime could emerge "more cruel, if that can be imagined, and stronger as a result of having withstood American attacks."

Iran's Supreme Leader Mojtaba Khamenei is the son of Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, who was killed in U.S.-Israeli strikes.

Shahrooz said he felt a "sigh of relief" when Trump didn't carry out attacks that would "wipe out Iranian civilization; obviously that would be devastating and just on a personal level, you know, the loss of my own family would come as a result of that."

"At the same time, I think there is a certain degree of … sadness that this regime is left standing," Shahrooz said. 

He said the ceasefire is likely to hold, noting Iran has taken significant losses and may not want to re-enter the conflict, though he cautioned Israel remains a "wild card."

Reuters

Pakistani Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif said he invited Iranian and U.S. Delegations to meet in Islamabad on Friday, and that Iran's president had confirmed Tehran would attend.

But there was no official confirmation from Washington of plans to attend in-person talks. 

The White House said no meeting would be considered official until formally announced.

If peace talks open on Friday, they will begin with the main demands of the warring sides unresolved.

There have been competing statements emerging about the ceasefire. 

Washington has presented its demands in a 15-point plan, while Iran has responded with a 10-point plan of its own.

In a post overnight, Trump acknowledged receiving the Iranian plan and called it "a workable basis to negotiate," which Iran's powerful security council said amounted to accepting its terms in principle. Those include lifting all sanctions, compensating Iran for damage and leaving it in control of the Strait of Hormuz.

An Israeli official said senior Trump administration officials had assured Israel that they would insist on previous conditions, such as the removal of Iran's nuclear material, a halt to enrichment and the elimination of ballistic missiles.

Iran is considering new strikes against Israel, according to its Fars News Agency, which cited an unnamed official alleging Israel violated a temporary ceasefire in Lebanon.

Israel has maintained that its operations in Lebanon were never included in the agreement, but the terms of the agreement itself have not been made public. 

There has been no independent confirmation of the reported Iranian plans. Claims from Fars, which often reflects the views of Iran's security establishment, could not be immediately verified by Reuters. 

U.S. Secretary of State Marco Rubio is meeting with NATO Secretary General Mark Rutte at the State Department in Washington.

The two men appeared in a bright blue room with U.S. And NATO flags to briefly shake hands in front of cameras, but walked away moments later without making any remarks. 

The trading day has begun, and U.S. Markets are surging as oil prices fall and investors digest the announcement of a two-week ceasefire.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 1,358 points or 2.92 per cent just after open, the S&P 500 was up 2.49 per cent, and the Nasdaq jumped 3.16 per cent.

Reuters

Smoke billows in central Beirut after Israeli strike

Emergency crews were on the scene on Wednesday after an Israeli strike on Beirut's Corniche al-Mazraa neighbourhood. Israel has said a recently announced ceasefire in the U.S.-Israeli war with Iran does not apply to its fight against Hezbollah in Lebanon, despite mediator Pakistan's assertion that the deal included Lebanon.

Lebanese President Joseph Aoun has said Israel's latest strikes on Lebanon amount to a "massacre" while the Lebanese Prime Minister Nawaf Salaf accused Israel of ignoring regional and international ceasefire efforts.

According to the state news agency, consecutive bombs shook the capital Beirut, simultaneously hitting several districts. One of the strikes on a crowded neighbourhood killed at least 12 people, a security source told Reuters.

Wednesday, Israeli Defence Minister Israel Katz said his government has insisted on separating the war with Iran with the fighting in Lebanon to change the reality in the country and remove threats to northern Israel. 

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