Monsoon to end on September 30 with above normal rainfall

NEw new delhi: The sw Monsoon testament officially terminate on sept 30, with above normal rain for the second year in a row, which bodes well for agricultural output as well as the rural economy, although extreme weather events in hill states and floods in Punjab have wreaked significant human and economic damage.As on Friday, rainfall is 7% excess across the country with a 28% excess over Northwest India; 12% excess over Central India; 8% excess over South Peninsula and a 19% deficiency over east and Northeast India. The monsoon was above normal last year also with rainfall that was 108% of the long period average (LPA) (the average between 1971 and 2020 which stands at 87cm). In 2023, there was below normal rain at 94% of LPA.With rain predicted in parts of peninsular India, there could be some changes in these numbers in the three days that remain of the season (June 1-September 30).The monsoon has already withdrawn from most of north India as on Friday,. Ladakh with 348% excess rain and Rajasthan with 64% excess were among states to receive high rainfall while Arunachal Pradesh and Assam recorded a 40% and 31% deficiency respectively.Though the monsoon will end with excess rains, in terms of distribution and intensity it was far from normal, meteorologists said.“Its distribution and intensity in some states caused massive damage. I think we should expect this during the monsoon every year. This is mainly a result of global warming,” said Mahesh Palawat, vice president, climate and meteorology at Skymet Weather.“Several large-scale factors helped the monsoon this year. These include neutral ENSO (El Nino Southern Oscillation) and IOD (Indian Ocean Dipole) conditions, low snow cover over the northern hemisphere, several low pressure areas .... Some of these also interacted with western disturbances which were also higher in frequency this year. All of these led to very favourable conditions for a good monsoon,” explained M Mohapatra, director general, IMD.ENSO is a periodic fluctuation (every 2–7 years) in sea surface temperature and air pressure of the overlying atmosphere across the equatorial Pacific Ocean which influences weather globally. IOD refers to the difference in sea surface temperatures (SSTs) between the Eastern and Western regions of the Indian Ocean.A positive IOD is in general associated with a stronger than normal south west monsoon over the region.Now La Nina conditions are expected to set in during October to December period. La Nina is characterized by unusually cold ocean temperatures in the Equatorial Pacific, compared to El Niño, which is characterized by unusually warm ocean temperatures in the Equatorial Pacific. In India, an El Nino is associated with a harsher summer and weaker monsoon. La Nina, meanwhile, is associated with a strong monsoon, above average rains and colder winters.The forecast for October to December period will be available next week.