Liberals descend on Montreal for convention on the cusp of a majority government

Liberals ar assemblage in Montreal for the next few years, buzzing on a 5th floor-crossing and with a sought-after legal age government in sight.

While the official agenda is dotted with panels, speakers, policy discussions and campaign training, the three byelections set for Monday are expected to dominate conversations at the three-day event. The party is hoping those races will not only secure a majority government but add some breathing room to pass its legislative agenda.

The Liberals enter their national gathering with a challenge they haven't dealt with in years: don't seem too happy.

"If you're going into a convention in which you're riding high in the polls, I suspect the mood is going to be pretty good," said David Coletto, founder and CEO of the polling firm Abacus Data. 

"The challenge will be not to seem too excited because the public is not feeling great about the state of the world, and the anxiety that world is causing in their lives."

Coletto said the Liberals need to contain "some of that optimism and joy" and "show that they're still focused on the priorities of the public."

Southwestern Ontario MP Marilyn Gladu's defection brings the Liberals up to 171 seats heading into the convention, short of the 172 needed for a slim majority when all seats in the House of Commons are filled.

The defection means the party only needs to win one of Monday's three races to secure a narrow majority.

But because the Speaker is a Liberal MP, Prime Minister Mark Carney's party would have an easier time controlling House business if they got to 173 seats.

Two of the byelections — the Toronto ridings of University-Rosedale and Scarborough Southwest — are considered Liberal strongholds. 

The Quebec riding of Terrebonne, not too far from where the convention is being held, proved to be nailbiter during the election this time last year. It was won by the Liberals by just one vote, but those results were later annulled by the Supreme Court of Canada. 

"If the polls are reflective of how voters in those ridings are feeling, then the Liberals should have a really good day on Monday," said Coletto. 

The gathering also falls against the backdrop of a shaky ceasefire between the U.S. And Iran and instability in the global energy market due to the choked off Strait of Hormuz. 

Adding further economic uncertainty, U.S. Trade Representative Jamieson Greer said this week he doesn't expect negotiations on the Canada-U.S.-Mexico Agreement (CUSMA) on trade to be resolved by July 1. 

Coletto said Carney needs to address Canadians' concerns when he takes the stage on Saturday. 

"Any time that people feel that their day-to-day lives are getting harder, not easier, there's always a risk they're gonna blame the people in power," he said.

"One difference though this time versus what might've been post-pandemic is people still overwhelmingly believe that the cause of that pain is not Mark Carney or not the decisions that the Liberal government are making — it's Donald Trump." 

Other keynote speakers include Finance Minister François‑Philippe Champagne, Man in Motion founder Rick Hansen, former federal Liberal cabinet minister and current Montreal Mayor Soraya Martinez Ferrada and president of the Liberal Party of Canada Sachit Mehra.

Members will be debating 24 policy proposals, which touch on health-care reform, the economy, curtailing use of the notwithstanding clause and restricting teenagers' access to social media and artificial intelligence chatbots like OpenAI's ChatGPT. 

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