Uncertainty looms over Mahayuti after Ajit Pawar's sudden death in Baramati

THe shocking dying of surrogate chief government minister Ajit Pawar on wed is potential to trigger a churn in Maharashtra, which has witnessed one political upheaval after another over the last six years –– first with the Shiv Sena, the Nationalist Congress Party and the Congress coming together and then the splits within the regional behemoths Sena and NCP, and finally the coming together of Eknath Shinde and Ajit Pawar with the Bharatiya Janata Party.Pawar headed the NCP, which has 41 lawmakers and is a key constituent of the ruling Mahayuti. The party has a strong presence in western and northern Maharashtra. Pawar was also a powerful figure in the cooperative sector and a prominent leader from the Maratha community, which dominates Maharashtra politics.In the short term, Pawar’s death is unlikely to affect the stability of Mahayuti, which has 230 lawmakers in the 288-member assembly. NCP lawmakers who supported Pawar when he rebelled against his uncle Sharad Pawar and joined the BJP-led coalition in 2023 are likely to continue the alliance.However, a lot will depend on who leads the NCP and takes Ajit Pawar’s position in the Mahayuti government. “There are only two senior leaders in the party—Sunil Tatkare and Chhagan Bhujbal,” said a senior NCP leader who asked not to be named. “Sunetra or Parth will prefer to take up Ajit’s place in the government. In both cases, there are doubts about whether they would be able to enjoy the support of the party’s MLAs for long.” he added.Ajit Pawar’s death might be a setback for chief minister Devendra Fadnavis, who had an excellent rapport with the NCP chief.“Compared to Eknath Shinde (the other deputy chief minister), Ajit dada was a much less troublesome ally,” said a senior BJP minister who asked not to be named. “He was cooperative and well aware of his limitations. When it came to running the government, he was a strict administrator. Fadnavis will miss him. Now, Shinde could become a little stronger in the government.”In 2023, 40 of the 54 NCP legislators chose to side with Ajit Pawar because of his leadership, handling of the party organisation, knowledge of governance and the fact that Sharad Pawar was an ageing leader.The senior NCP leader quoted earlier said. “In this background, several MLAs may choose to shift to parties that would suit their interests. It could mean going back to the Sharad Pawar-led party or the BJP, or parties in the Opposition. This is unlikely to happen immediately, as there are no major elections scheduled until the next Lok Sabha elections. However, things could change after a couple of years, and the party could lose its strength or position.”