Has SIR altered West Bengal’s electoral map ahead of assembly elections?

HAs the Special Intensive rescript (SIR) in w Bengal, with its unique adjudication feature film, led to a gerrymandering of the say’s electorate forward of assembly elections?This question arises because districts or assembly constituencies (ACs) with more Muslim voters suffered higher deletions during the adjudication process. Since Muslims have little probability of voting for the Bharatiya Janata Party and a high likelihood of voting for the Trinamool Congress (TMC), their deletion will help the BJP. But how does one answer the larger question about electoral outcomes and gerrymandering? The best way is to use a three-step process.These pages were the first to point out that SIR need not lead to a fall in the absolute number of voters. On August 2, 2025, while analysing SIR data for Bihar, the first state to undergo the process in this cycle, we argued the post-SIR elector number had fallen significantly compared to pre-SIR electors but was still larger than the number of actual voters in the previous pre-SIR election in Bihar.The people SIR deleted were likely the proverbial deadwood in the electoral roll and people who died, migrated or were registered in more than one place. We also rightly predicted a statistical boost to voter turnout in the state. The 2025 Bihar turnout data vindicated this assessment. Turnout numbers from Kerala and Assam, which underwent SIR and special revision, also support this argument. In Bengal, the final number of electors is still significantly higher than the number of actual voters who voted in the 2024 Lok Sabha, the latest pre-SIR election. However, for the number of voters to not fall in the upcoming state elections, its turnout will have to increase from 81.7% in 2021 to 88.9% in 2026 -- a record for the state.Also Read | At 8.4 million, SIR in Uttar Pradesh sees highest addition of voters from draft rollsWhat about AC-level changes in the number of electors in the state?HT reported on Thursday that AC-wise deletion of voters during the adjudication process in West Bengal was significantly more skewed than the deletions under pre-adjudication SIR. This is driven by the trends in two kinds of ACs where a particular community is politically more salient than others. 67 ACs which elected at least one Muslim MLA since 2011 had a higher share in deletions in adjudication than their share in pre-adjudication or even pre-SIR roll. This trend also holds true for the 16 ACs anecdotally identified by HT as seats dominated by the Matua community, a conglomerate of Dalit groups who largely moved from what is now Bangladesh. These are ACs where either the Matua Mahasangha, the apex body of the sect, has a strong presence or the local lawmaker is from the community. Nine out of these 16 ACs are reserved for Scheduled Castes (SC). To be sure, both sets -- 67 Muslim ACs and the 16 Matua ACs -- are likely to have voters from other communities too.The number of electors in 2026 has fallen below the 2024 number in three ACs: Metiaburuz in South 24 Parganas district, and Lalgola and Samserganj in Murshidabad district. The TMC led Metiaburuz AC in the 2024 Lok Sabha elections and the Congress led in the other two. More importantly, many ACs are on the precipice of witnessing a fall in the number of absolute votes cast in the 2026 election, compared to 2024 Lok Sabha. In 96 seats, the difference between the latest number of electors and 2024 voters is less than 10%. Another way to look at this question is to simulate the required turnout which will ensure that votes cast in 2026 do not fall compared to 2024 Lok Sabha. This number will have to be higher than 90% in 121 ACs. 29 of them are Muslim dominated and another 15 are Matua-dominated as described above.So, is there elector gerrymandering?It is impossible to answer this question without compromising statistical integrity, unless one has a complete religion-wise breakup of Bengal’s pre and post-SIR roll. However, a case can be made on the lines of probability by assuming that greater deletions in Muslim and Matua ACs entails a likelihood of more Muslims and Matuas being deleted than other communities that also vote there. There is one more statistical test which can be applied. Were Muslim and Matua-dominated ACs among the ones with higher turnout in 2024? Data shows that a greater share of Muslim dominated ACs were in the bottom half of ACs sorted by turnout, while it was the other way round for most Matua-dominated ACs.On the basis of this, one can reach two arguments -- one that pre-SIR electoral roll in Muslim-dominated ACs was more likely to have deadwood than Matua ACs, or two, the greater likelihood of a Muslim being elected made the Muslim electorate less eager to go out and vote. With the current elections being held against the backdrop of higher deletions in Muslim ACs, Muslim voters might be more willing to exercise their vote than last time. We will know more when seat-wise turnout data is released.