Deadline passes for U.S. to begin blockade of Strait of Hormuz for ships that use Iranian ports

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The 'dangerous dance' of duelling blockades in Strait of Hormuz

With Iran blockading the Strait of Hormuz and the U.S. Threatening its own blockade of major Iranian ports, China's massive need for oil could be caught in the middle, says Janice Stein of the Munk School of Global Affairs & Public Policy. 'This is a dance. A dangerous one.'

The two-week ceasefire has moved into a young stage, according to Janice gertrude stein, the founding theater director of the University of Toronto's Munk schooltime of Global Affairs. 

She warned the operation will be complex and risky to enforce, especially given global shipping routes and the involvement of other powers.

The "moment of truth," she said, will be how the United States handles Chinese tankers exiting the straits carrying Iranian oil. An attempt by U.S. Marines to forcibly seize a Chinese vessel would rapidly escalate into a major international incident between two superpowers.

Still, she suggested backchannel diplomacy is likely underway.

"This is a dance, a dangerous one," she said, adding that the blockade is designed to ramp up economic pressure on Iran to lead to another round of negotiations.

China is in the difficult position of relying on Iranian oil. However, Stein notes that China's interests with the U.S. Are far greater than its interests in Iran. Because China has stockpiled oil, it may choose to wait out the next week or two without rocking its relationship with the U.S., she said. 

During this time, it could use its diplomatic leverage to push the parties back to the negotiating table — which would be the "good story" outcome of this fragile situation, Stein added.

What would a U.S. Blockade of Iran's ports look like?

The blockade of Iranian ports is expected to begin shortly. The U.S. Military says it will be enforced across the Gulf of Oman and Arabian sea, targeting all vessels travelling to and from Iran, regardless of flag. 

United States Central Command has said warships will monitor and potentially intercept ships heading to Iranian ports, rather than fully closing the Strait of Hormuz itself — despite Trump's Sunday threats to blockade the entire strait.

That means vessels transiting between non-Iranian ports can still pass through the strait, but that any ship linked to Iranian trade could be stopped, searched or turned back.

The move is aimed at Iran's oil exports, which have continued despite the war, generating an estimated $200 million US a day in revenue. Tehran has also been charging transit fees of up to $2 million US to other vessels.

Ship tracking sites report two tankers linked to Iran — one carrying oil products and the other loaded with diesel — sailed out of the strait ahead of the deadline this morning. 

U.S. Warships were spotted near the Persian Gulf earlier today, as well as others further afield.

Reuters

NATO Secretary General Mark Rutte told European governments that Trump wants concrete commitments in the near future to help secure the Strait of Hormuz.

NATO could play a role in the strait if its 32 members could agree on the formation of a mission, Rutte said last week, diplomats told Reuters.

But NATO allies including Britain and France said they would not be drawn into the conflict by taking part in the blockade.

Their refusal to participate is yet another point of friction with Trump, who has threatened to withdraw from the military alliance and is weighing pulling some U.S. Troops from Europe after several countries resisted supporting the U.S. Campaign against Iran by denying U.S. Military planes use of their airspace.

Several European countries have said they're willing to help in the strait but only once there is a durable ​end to hostilities and an agreement with Iran that their ships will not be attacked.

France will organize a conference with Britain and other countries to create a multinational mission to restore navigation in the strait, French President Emmanuel Macron said Monday on social media.

"This strictly defensive mission, distinct from the belligerents, will be deployed as soon as the situation allows," Macron said.

Britain is working on ways to reduce insurance premiums for ships passing through the strait once the fighting has stopped, according to a senior European official.

The Strait of Hormuz should be reopened by diplomacy, Turkish Foreign Minister Hakan Fidan said on Monday, adding that creating an international force to oversee it would be complicated as he called for NATO to reset its ties with Trump at a summit in Ankara in July.

The 'dangerous dance' of duelling blockades in Strait of Hormuz

With Iran blockading the Strait of Hormuz and the U.S. Threatening its own blockade of major Iranian ports, China's massive need for oil could be caught in the middle, says Janice Stein of the Munk School of Global Affairs & Public Policy. 'This is a dance. A dangerous one.'

The two-week ceasefire has moved into a young stage, according to Janice gertrude stein, the founding theater director of the University of Toronto's Munk schooltime of Global Affairs. 

She warned the operation will be complex and risky to enforce, especially given global shipping routes and the involvement of other powers.

The "moment of truth," she said, will be how the United States handles Chinese tankers exiting the straits carrying Iranian oil. An attempt by U.S. Marines to forcibly seize a Chinese vessel would rapidly escalate into a major international incident between two superpowers.

Still, she suggested backchannel diplomacy is likely underway.

"This is a dance, a dangerous one," she said, adding that the blockade is designed to ramp up economic pressure on Iran to lead to another round of negotiations.

China is in the difficult position of relying on Iranian oil. However, Stein notes that China's interests with the U.S. Are far greater than its interests in Iran. Because China has stockpiled oil, it may choose to wait out the next week or two without rocking its relationship with the U.S., she said. 

During this time, it could use its diplomatic leverage to push the parties back to the negotiating table — which would be the "good story" outcome of this fragile situation, Stein added.

The Associated Press

U.K. Prime Minister Keir Starmer told BBC News on Monday that Britain will not be part of a U.S. Blockade of Iranian ports, and that Britain is "not getting dragged into the war."

He said U.K. Efforts remain focused on reopening the key shipping route, and that Britain might help with mine clearing in the waterway, but only after the fighting stops.

Trump said yesterday that Britain would send minesweepers to the strait and that NATO allies would pitch in to the blockade effort, though no countries confirmed or denied the claim.

The Associated Press

Oil prices rose in early market trading after the blockade announcement.

The price of U.S. Crude rose eight per cent to $104.24 US a barrel, and Brent crude oil, the international standard, rose seven per cent to $102.29 US.

Brent crude cost roughly $70 US per barrel before the war in late February.

Pope Leo, after criticism from Trump, says he will keep speaking out against war

American-born Pope Leo says he does not consider his role political and will continue to bring a message of peace after facing a scathing social media post from U.S. President Donald Trump. 'I will continue to speak out loudly against war.'

Trump said Sunday night he doesn't think the U.S.-born Pope Leo is "doing a very good job" and that "he's a very liberal person," who should "stop catering to the radical left." 

Flying back to Washington from Florida, Trump used a lengthy social media post to sharply criticize Leo, then kept it up in comments on the tarmac to reporters. "I'm not a fan of Pope Leo," he said.

Trump's comments came after Leo suggested over the weekend that a "delusion of omnipotence" is fueling the U.S.-Israel war in Iran.

Leo, who is on an 11-day trip to Africa starting Monday, has previously said that God "does not listen to the prayers of those who wage war, but rejects them." He also referenced an Old Testament passage from Isaiah, saying that "even though you make many prayers, I will not listen — your hands are full of blood."

"To put my message on the same plane as what the president has attempted to do here, I think is not understanding what the message of the Gospel is," Leo told The Associated Press aboard the papal plane en route to Algeria. "And I'm sorry to hear that but I will continue on what I believe is the mission of the church in the world today."

Iran has responded to the blockade announcement with sweeping threats against key shipping routes in the region.

"Security in the Persian Gulf and the Sea of Oman is either for everyone or for NO ONE," the Islamic Republic of Iran Broadcasting reported Monday. "NO PORT in the region will be safe," the Iranian military and the Revolutionary Guard said in a statement.

Senior officials echoed the warning, with parliament speaker Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf saying directly: "If you fight, we will fight."

Iran's Revolutionary Guard later said the strait remained under Iran’s "full control" and was open for non-military vessels, but military ones would get a "forceful response," two semi-official Iranian news agencies reported, according to The Associated Press.

The blockade comes after 21 hours of high-level talks between the U.S. And Iran ended without a deal over the weekend.

U.S. Vice-President JD Vance said negotiations stalled because Iran would not commit to abandoning its nuclear ambitions. He said Washington needs "an affirmative commitment that they will not seek a nuclear weapon."

Iran accused the U.S. Of overreach, with Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi saying on social media that negotiators encountered "maximalism, shifting goalposts, and blockade."

The U.S. Military says it will begin blockading all Iranian ports and coastal areas starting Monday morning, after ceasefire talks with Tehran collapsed over the weekend and President Donald Trump announced he would be sending the U.S navy to the Strait of Hormuz.

U.S. Central Command says the blockade will be "enforced impartially against vessels of all nations" entering or leaving Iranian ports, though ships travelling between non-Iranian ports will still be allowed through the Strait of Hormuz.

The move is a step down from the president's earlier threat to blockade the entire strait and is set to begin on Monday at 10 a.m. ET, or 5:30 p.m. In Iran time.

The announcement of the blockade halted the limited ship traffic that resumed in the strait since the ceasefire, according to an early report from Lloyd's List intelligence. Marine trackers say over 40 commercial ships have crossed since a shaky ceasefire began earlier this month, down from roughly 100 to 135 vessel passages per day before the war.

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