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Trump has a track record for using high-risk pressure to seek a desired outcome. With the blockade, he hopes Iran will buckle to the U.S.'s demands in now-stalled truce talks. Once enacted, the blockade seeks to starve Iran of $200 million US in daily oil revenues.

But it's also very risky. Let's imagine some scenarios:

Iran could strike a U.S. Warship

Most of the U.S. Naval presence is out in the Gulf of Oman and Arabian Sea, further away from Iran's coastline. That makes them safer from any Iranian attack. But it also puts them in a much wider and busier body of water where interdicting ships will be harder than in the narrow Strait of Hormuz.

Two U.S. Destroyers have moved through the Strait of Hormuz and are now in the Persian Gulf. But they are most at risk because of how close they are to Iran. Were a missile to be fired at the ships from the coastline, the ship would have just seconds to respond with countermeasures.

What if a ship refuses to stop?

The U.S. Navy rehearses forced boardings — often by inserting soldiers by helicopter to seize a vessel. Doing so in international waters comes very close to the line where it can be considered an act of war.

Warships will typically demand information from a ship's master (the person in charge) over the radio. If there is no response, or the answer is unsatisfactory, the warship may escalate to the point of firing warning shots. But doing that — or even trying to physically block the path of a flammable oil-laden supertanker — is very risky.

"It's not like you're going to put a destroyer, necessarily, in front of a 200,000-tonne oil tanker," Mark Norman told us. He's the former commander of the Royal Canadian Navy. "You [are] certainly not going to shoot at it with the missiles or guns or anything like that."

Some shipping companies will keep their vessels out of the region altogether. And all of this serves to increase the price of oil, which is no good for the Trump administration either.

Speaking outside the White House a short while ago, Trump confirmed the blockade started at 10 a.m. ET. He said it's aimed at both forcing Iran back to negotiations and reopening global energy flows. 

"Maybe everything. I mean, both of those things, certainly. And more," he said when asked about the endgame, accusing Iran of trying to "blackmail the world."

Trump insisted the pressure campaign is working, claiming Iran's economy has effectively been cut off: "Iran is doing absolutely no business and we're going to keep it that way, very easily."

He also repeated his hardline stance on Iran's nuclear ambitions, but also suggested diplomatic outreach may already be underway.

"I think they will agree to it. I'm almost sure of it. In fact, I am sure of it. If they don't agree, there's no deal. There'll never be a deal," he said.

While the U.S. Does not rely on the strait for its own energy needs, Trump framed the blockade as a global necessity. 

"We have our own oil and gas much more than we need," he said, adding that other countries "have offered their services" and will "let it be known probably tomorrow." No other countries have confirmed or denied plans to participate.

He also hinted at further escalation if talks fail, warning that if no agreement is reached by the end of the ceasefire, "it won't be pleasant for them."

The U.S. Seeks to stop any vessel going to or from an Iranian port. They'll use a combination of open source intelligence and more covert methods to determine which ships those are.

They would start with the Automatic Identification System (AIS), which all commercial ships broadcast. It lists specific information, including their intended destination port. However, a ship's crew can change this destination entry manually, so some may seek to deceive the U.S. Navy about their true destination.

They can also switch this system off, as Russia's shadow fleet of oil tankers often does, but that is particularly risky in a crowded waterway, and would also be a red flag.

The U.S. Will certainly employ long-range patrol aircraft, which have the ability to detect ships leaving an Iranian port from hundreds of kilometres away, and direct U.S. Warships to intercept it. Satellite imagery will be useful in the same way.

And ships with a known history of servicing Iranian ports will likely be most suspect as they approach the region. 

Finally is the most covert option: U.S. Nuclear submarines. They can track a slow-moving oil or gas tanker over huge distances. They cannot board a vessel, but could direct other forces to do so.

The Associated Press

The current truce between the U.S. And Iran appears to be holding, with no word on whether negotiations will resume before it expires on April 22.

Pakistan's foreign minister, Ishaq Dar, said his country will try to facilitate a new round of dialogue between Iran and the U.S. In the coming days. There was no immediate reaction from either side.

A key obstacle seems to be a perception on both sides that they won the war and that each has time on its side.

Financial markets in North America dipped and then rose in early trading as the U.S.'s blockade deadline passed.

The S&P 500 was virtually unchanged in morning trading after erasing an earlier dip. The Dow Jones Industrial Average was down 250 points, or 0.5 per cent, as of 10:05 a.m. ET, and the Nasdaq composite was 0.3 per cent higher.

Oil markets are hovering around the $100 US a barrel mark. Despite ceasefire talks over the weekend ending with no deal, analysts said the market was still looking for positives in the situation.

"Markets are taking some encouragement from the fact that the two sides are talking and that the broader ceasefire seems to be holding for now," Sameer Samana, head of global equities and real assets at the Wells Fargo Investment Institute, told The Associated Press.

Trump has a track record for using high-risk pressure to seek a desired outcome. With the blockade, he hopes Iran will buckle to the U.S.'s demands in now-stalled truce talks. Once enacted, the blockade seeks to starve Iran of $200 million US in daily oil revenues.

But it's also very risky. Let's imagine some scenarios:

Iran could strike a U.S. Warship

Most of the U.S. Naval presence is out in the Gulf of Oman and Arabian Sea, further away from Iran's coastline. That makes them safer from any Iranian attack. But it also puts them in a much wider and busier body of water where interdicting ships will be harder than in the narrow Strait of Hormuz.

Two U.S. Destroyers have moved through the Strait of Hormuz and are now in the Persian Gulf. But they are most at risk because of how close they are to Iran. Were a missile to be fired at the ships from the coastline, the ship would have just seconds to respond with countermeasures.

What if a ship refuses to stop?

The U.S. Navy rehearses forced boardings — often by inserting soldiers by helicopter to seize a vessel. Doing so in international waters comes very close to the line where it can be considered an act of war.

Warships will typically demand information from a ship's master (the person in charge) over the radio. If there is no response, or the answer is unsatisfactory, the warship may escalate to the point of firing warning shots. But doing that — or even trying to physically block the path of a flammable oil-laden supertanker — is very risky.

"It's not like you're going to put a destroyer, necessarily, in front of a 200,000-tonne oil tanker," Mark Norman told us. He's the former commander of the Royal Canadian Navy. "You [are] certainly not going to shoot at it with the missiles or guns or anything like that."

Some shipping companies will keep their vessels out of the region altogether. And all of this serves to increase the price of oil, which is no good for the Trump administration either.

Posting on Truth Social minutes ago, Trump appeared to contradict CENTCOM statements saying it would intercept ships and turn them away. 

The U.S. President instead warned that any Iranian vessels approaching the U.S. Blockade would be targeted.

Trump wrote that Iranian naval forces have already been largely destroyed in fighting, claiming "Iran's navy is laying at the bottom of the sea, completely obliterated — 158 ships."

"If any of these ships come anywhere close to our BLOCKADE, they will be immediately ELIMINATED, using the same system of kill that we use against the drug dealers on boats at Sea," he said, referring to the U.S. Military's months-long campaign of targeting alleged drug smugglers in the Caribbean and Pacific oceans.

He said smaller "fast attack ships" would be treated as a threat if they approach U.S. Forces.

The post echoes previous discrepancies between Trump's social media posts and CENTCOM statements, which have not made any reference to targeting or destroying vessels.

The Associated Press

The chief of Russia's state nuclear corporation said Monday it was pulling nearly all of its remaining personnel from Iran’s Russia-built nuclear power plant.

Rosatom chief Alexei Likhachev said 108 workers were leaving the power plant in Bushehr, and only 20 will stay behind to keep watch over equipment. Likhachev said Russia has co-ordinated the evacuation with Iranian authorities.

Since the start of the war, Russia has repeatedly voiced concern about projectiles hitting the territory of the plant, some of them landing near its nuclear reactor.

Russia had planned the near-complete evacuation long before the ceasefire, removing about 600 personnel in several waves in March and earlier this month.

Most of Iran's southern ports are in the Persian Gulf to the west of the Strait of Hormuz, though it does have one ocean port, Chabahar, located east of the strait.

Most of Iran's oil flows through Kharg Island, which has seen extensive strikes since the start of the war.

Iran's main port, Bandar Abbas, handles large amounts of freight and is located right inside the strait.

These, and several others, would be part of any threatened U.S. Blockade.

The scheduled time for the blockade to begin passed at the top of the hour. 

We're watching for any updates from the U.S. Central Command or U.S. President Donald Trump's social media account for confirmation the blockade is underway.

How would a U.S. Military blockade of Iran's ports work?

The blockade of Iranian ports is expected to begin shortly. The U.S. Military says it will be enforced across the Gulf of Oman and Arabian sea, targeting all vessels travelling to and from Iran, regardless of flag. 

United States Central Command has said warships will monitor and potentially intercept ships heading to Iranian ports, rather than fully closing the Strait of Hormuz itself — despite Trump's Sunday threats to blockade the entire strait.

That means vessels transiting between non-Iranian ports can still pass through the strait, but that any ship linked to Iranian trade could be stopped, searched or turned back.

The move is aimed at Iran's oil exports, which have continued despite the war, generating an estimated $200 million US a day in revenue. Tehran has also been charging transit fees of up to $2 million US to other vessels.

Ship tracking sites report two tankers linked to Iran — one carrying oil products and the other loaded with diesel — sailed out of the strait ahead of the deadline this morning. 

U.S. Warships were spotted near the Persian Gulf earlier today, as well as others further afield.

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